MLB player props: 3 best bets for Wednesday (September 4) (2024)

The real reason we are backing Rooker, though, is because of the matchup against Kirby, who has gotten annihilated in his last couple starts. His HR/9 of 1.12 on the year is not horrible, but in his last five starts, he has given up an astounding nine home runs, with a HR/9 of 3.24.

In this stretch, he has allowed a barrel rate of 13.2% and an average exit velocity of 90.1 mph. The issue with Kirby has been his fastball, as eight of the nine home runs he has allowed have come off his 4-seamer. Rooker is a right-handed hitter, and all five home runs that Kirby has allowed to righties have come off that 4-seam FB.

Rooker, meanwhile, has excellent stats against the 4-seam fastball from right-handed pitching. In the last two weeks, he has a 22% barrel rate, 71% HardHit rate and 71% fly-ball rate against them, including four separate hits that left the bat at 100-plus mph or faster.

Lawrence Butler Home Run (+500) FanDuel

Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET

Now for our second player on the Athletics, and it's probably no surprise that we are once again riding with Lawrence Butler to go yard. Butler came through for us yesterday, and at the rate he is hitting the baseball, he is worth a look almost every night, especially nights like tonight when he has an advantage over the pitcher.

He obviously gets the same benefits of going up against Georgy Kirby as Rooker does, and the rate that Butler has been hitting the ball is the best in MLB.

He leads the MLB in the following categories in the last week:

• HardHit line-drive + fly-balls: 15 total (next-closest batter: 13)
• Balls launched: nine (next closest-batter: six)
• Barrels: 10 (next-closest batter: eight)

Not only does he lead MLB is all of those stats, but nobody is even within one of him in any of those stats, which is crazy to think about when considering the small sample size of only seven days.

That continued yesterday with one home run and three total HardHits, two of which left the bat at 108-plus mph. He stays hot tonight.

Jackson Merrill Home Run (+550) Caesars

Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET

Merrill is another batter who has been red-hot at the plate, and he is once again a great bet to go yard thanks to a great pitching matchup. He is going up against Keider Montero of the Tigers, who is not the worst home run pitcher in the world, but definitely somebody who can be had.

Montero has made 12 starts this season and has a 1.68 HR/9, which would tie him with the worst HR/9 of all qualified pitchers. In addition, his an average exit velocity (89.5 mph), HardHit rate (39.6%) and launch angle (15.1 degrees) would all be bottom 30 as well. Not horrible, but definitely not good, and Merrill has just been on fire.

He has seven home runs in the last month against RHP, with a 18.67% barrel rate, 53.13% HardHit rate and 48.44% fly-ball rate. Tonight, he'll see a 4-seam fastball 47% of the time, which he has crushed to the tune of a 15%% barrel rate and 52% fly-ball rate in the last month.

Next up, he will see a a slider 20% of the time, which he has similarly hit hard with a 25% barrel rate, 66.67% HardHit rate and 66.67% fly-ball rate against sliders from RHP in the last four weeks.

Lastly, he will see a changeup 18.5% of the time, which he has a 25% barrel rate and 50% HardHit rate against over the same stretch.

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